6. Social and Environmental Vulnerability

6.1 Climate Vulnerability

The California Current Ecosystem is vulnerable to numerous impacts associated with ocean and climate change including:

• Ocean warming is affecting environmental patterns such as wind and upwelling
• Scientists have linked the 2014-2015 warm water ‘Blob” in the Eastern Pacific Ocean to the West Coast’s longest and most widespread HAB event in history. Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are becoming more frequent and severe, with some producing domoic acid, a potent neurotoxin that accumulates in the viscera (and in some cases the meat) of shellfish (bivalves, crustaceans) and some finfish and, when ingested, poses human health risks. When HABs die off and decay, they reduce the amount of oxygen in the water, potentially creating “dead zones” which can affect species distributions.
• Sea level rise/flooding threatens coastal communities, including port infrastructure, and can exacerbate the impacts of king tides.
• Shifting wind patterns and intensification that result from changes to ocean temperatures and upwelling patterns pose safety risks to fishers.
• Ocean acidification and changing ocean chemistry impact shellfish and associated fisheries.
• Shifts in abundance and distribution can drive highly localized impacts on fishing communities depending on social and economic resilience and management constraints (Source).
• Santa Barbara Channel ports such as Santa Barbara and Ventura, are located in a transitional biogeographic zone, where more northerly and southerly features and conditions mix, affording its port communities and fisheries a more diverse environment that may be better able to buffer – or ride out – some aspects of climate vulnerability.

Fishing communities’ experiences with ocean and climate change vary greatly depending on environmental, social and economic factors (Source). The impacts of climate change play out shoreside through social and economic networks at the port, in the fishery support and seafood supply system, and throughout the larger community. Despite these challenges, climate change could create new opportunities for fishers, for example when species shift north into the range vessels operating out of a given port. However, opportunities such as access to new fisheries can be limited by existing management (e.g., restricted access), cost of entry (e.g., for vessels, gear, permits, fishing knowledge/expertise) (Source). Below is a brief description of some of the potential implications for Ventura’s primary fisheries.

Coastal Pelagic Species

• Within the coastal pelagic species (CPS) management group, there is wide variability in both species exposure and vulnerability to climate change. In general, the forage fish that constitute CPS are more exposed and sensitive to climate change impacts in the northern and central nearshore regions of the California Current ecosystem, making them more at risk for climate impacts (Source).
• CPS and/or market squid range may temporarily extend further north than previously observed, creating the potential for an expanded fishery (Source).

Market Squid

• Market squid is highly sensitive to changes in ocean conditions, which can cause extreme variability in species abundance and availability to the fishery (based on depth and latitude). Because market squid has a short life span (6-9 months), extended warm water periods could impact species abundance and availability, resulting in extended periods of low catches under shifting ocean conditions.
• Climate change may also result in shifts in suitable habitats for market squid. During the broader scale warm-water “Blob” event of 2014-2015, the species shifted northward and continues to be found in fishable aggregations in northern California and well into Oregon.
• Changes in oxygen levels could impact both embryo and adult habitats (Source).

California Spiny Lobster

• Ocean warming is likely to impact the California spiny lobster in several important ways. Increased sea surface temperatures may cause behavior changes that increase harvest and extend the lobster range northward. At the same time, warmer ocean temperatures could increase the likelihood of disease (Source).
• Sea level rise could increase erosion, negatively impacting seagrass beds where lobsters feed. More frequent or severe storm events could impact kelp forests and the delicate ecosystem balance between lobsters, sea urchins and kelp (Source).
• Sustained warmer ocean temperatures create ideal conditions for HABs and elevated levels of domoic acid, potentially leading to delays and closures in the commercial and recreational fisheries.
• Ocean acidification (OA) poses a threat to the California spiny lobster fishery, as it is known to cause shell dissolution (Source, Source).

Prawns (Spot and Ridgeback)

• Ocean acidification models suggest that ocean acidification could influence the timing of growth and development in prawns. Furthermore, spot prawn depends on shallow-water algae habitats as nursery grounds which are more vulnerable to climate change-driven factors such as increasing temperatures, increasing storm intensity, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification. It is unknown how spot prawn populations will be affected if threats to nursery habitats increase (Source).
• Ocean warming may have a positive influence on ridgeback prawn, as its biological productivity is greatest during warm water phases and is depressed during cooler water phases (Source). Amid the unusual and increasing variability in recent years, including the anomalously warm water conditions of 2014-16, ridgeback prawn landings increased steadily, suggesting strong biological productivity.

6.2 Community Social Vulnerability Index

NOAA developed a suite of social indicators, the Community Social Vulnerability Index (CSVI), for use in fisheries social impact assessment. These indices address social well-being and sustainability and include measures of vulnerability and resilience for coastal fishing communities. It is important to note that much of the data used to determine CSVI rankings is for US Census Bureau “Census-Designated Places” rather than fisheries per se and therefore reflect the demographics of the wider community, rather than fisheries participants specifically.

Based on 2016 data, Ventura ranks as low social vulnerability on the CSVI (e.g. labor force, housing, poverty and personal disruption indices). However, Ventura ranks medium vulnerability as a function of population composition. Ventura ranks as medium to medium-high vulnerability as a function of gentrification pressures such as housing and urban sprawl. In 2019, the poverty rate was 7.3%, compared to 10.5% nationally. The city had a 61.6% employment rate, compared to 61% nationally. The impacts of climate change are amplified when a community is already socially and economically vulnerable because their ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change on primary fisheries is severely limited.

For more information and a detailed definition of each indicator, go to NOAA Fisheries.