6. Social and Environmental Vulnerability

6.1 Climate Vulnerability

The California Current Ecosystem is vulnerable to numerous impacts associated with ocean and climate change including:

• Ocean warming is affecting environmental patterns such as wind and upwelling.
• Scientists have linked the 2014-2015 warm water ‘Blob” in the Eastern Pacific Ocean to the West Coast’s longest and most widespread HAB event in history. Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are becoming more frequent and severe, with some producing domoic acid, a potent neurotoxin that accumulates in the viscera (and in some cases the meat) of shellfish (bivalves, crustaceans) and some finfish and, when ingested, poses human health risks. When HABs die off and decay, they reduce the amount of oxygen in the water, potentially creating “dead zones” which can affect species distributions. During 2015-16, a large and persistent HAB on the West Coast led to unprecedented DA-related season delays and closures for California’s Dungeness and rock crab fisheries, respectively (Source).
• Sea level rise/flooding threatens coastal communities, including port infrastructure, and can exacerbate the impacts of king tides.
• Shifting wind patterns and intensification that result from changes to ocean temperatures and upwelling patterns pose safety risks to fishers.
• Ocean acidification and changing ocean chemistry impact shellfish and associated fisheries.
• Shifts in abundance and distribution can drive highly localized impacts on fishing communities depending on social and economic resilience and management constraints (Source).

Fishing communities’ experiences with ocean and climate change vary greatly depending on environmental, social and economic factors (Source). The impacts of climate change play out shoreside through social and economic networks at the port, in the fishery support and seafood supply system, and throughout the larger community.

Despite these challenges, climate change could create new opportunities for fishers, for example when species shift north into the range vessels operating out of a given port. However, opportunities such as access to new fisheries can be limited by existing management (e.g., restricted access), cost of entry (e.g., for vessels, gear, permits, fishing knowledge/expertise) (Source). Below is a brief description of some of the potential implications for San Diego’s primary fisheries.

California Spiny Lobster

• Ocean warming is likely to impact the California spiny lobster in several important ways. Increased sea surface temperatures may cause behavior changes that increase harvest and extend the lobster range northward. At the same time, warmer ocean temperatures could increase the likelihood of disease (Source).
• Sea level rise could increase erosion, negatively impacting seagrass beds where lobsters feed. More frequent or severe storm events could impact kelp forests and the delicate ecosystem balance between lobsters, sea urchins and kelp (Source).
• Sustained warmer ocean temperatures create ideal conditions for HABs and elevated levels of domoic acid, potentially leading to delays and closures in the commercial and recreational fisheries.
• Ocean acidification (OA) poses a threat to the California spiny lobster fishery, as it is known to cause shell dissolution (Source, Source).

Spot Prawn

• Ocean acidification models suggest that ocean acidification could influence the timing of growth and development in prawns. Furthermore, spot prawn depends on shallow-water algae habitats as nursery grounds which are more vulnerable to climate change-driven factors such as increasing temperatures, increasing storm intensity, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification. It is unknown how spot prawn populations will be affected if threats to nursery habitats increase (Source).

Red Sea Urchin

• Low nutrient conditions coupled with increased purple urchin grazing on kelp have led to significant declines in kelp abundance, negatively impacting red sea urchin growth and the quality of gonads for the market. Red sea urchins’ movement to deeper waters where other prey is more available, in turn, makes it more time-consuming and dangerous for divers to collect them, ultimately affecting the profitability as well as the safety of the fishery.
• Ocean acidification has the potential to impact red sea urchin reproduction negatively, requiring higher concentrations of sperm to achieve fertilization success (Source).

Tunas

• Climate change and changing ocean temperatures are expected to impact tunas, leading to species range shifts. Subtropical species of tunas are likely to exhibit poleward range expansions and notable shifts in distribution (Source).

6.2 Community Social Vulnerability Index

NOAA developed a suite of social indicators, the Community Social Vulnerability Index (CSVI), for use in fisheries social impact assessment. These indices address social well-being and sustainability and include measures of vulnerability and resilience for coastal fishing communities. It is important to note that much of the data used to determine CSVI rankings is for US Census Bureau “Census-Designated Places” rather than fisheries per se and therefore reflect the demographics of the wider community, rather than fisheries participants specifically.

Based on 2016 data, San Diego ranks as low vulnerability on the CSVI as a function of labor force, housing and personal disruption indices. San Diego ranks as medium to medium high vulnerability as a function of the poverty and population composition indices and in terms of gentrification pressures. In 2019, the poverty rate was 11%, compared to 10.5% nationally. The city had a 62.5% employment rate, compared to 61% nationally. The impacts of climate change are amplified when a community is already socially and economically vulnerable because their ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change on primary fisheries is severely limited.

For more information and a detailed definition of each indicator, go to NOAA Fisheries.