6. Social and Environmental Vulnerability

6.1 Climate Vulnerability

The California Current Ecosystem is vulnerable to numerous impacts associated with ocean and climate change including:

• Ocean warming is affecting environmental patterns such as wind and upwelling.
• Scientists have linked the 2014-2015 warm water ‘Blob” in the Eastern Pacific Ocean to the West Coast’s longest and most widespread HAB event in history. Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are becoming more frequent and severe, with some producing domoic acid, a potent neurotoxin that accumulates in the viscera (and in some cases the meat) of shellfish (bivalves, crustaceans) and some finfish and, when ingested, poses human health risks. When HABs die off and decay, they reduce the amount of oxygen in the water, potentially creating “dead zones” which can affect species distributions. During 2015-16, a large and persistent HAB on the West Coast led to unprecedented DA-related season delays and closures for California’s Dungeness and rock crab fisheries, respectively (Source).
• Sea level rise/flooding threatens coastal communities, including port infrastructure, and can exacerbate the impacts of king tides.
• Shifting wind patterns and intensification that result from changes to ocean temperatures and upwelling patterns pose safety risks to fishers.
• Ocean acidification and changing ocean chemistry impact shellfish and associated fisheries.
• Shifts in abundance and distribution can drive highly localized impacts on fishing communities depending on social and economic resilience and management constraints (Source).

Fishing communities’ experiences with ocean and climate change vary greatly depending on environmental, social and economic factors (Source). The impacts of climate change play out shoreside through social and economic networks at the port, in the fishery support and seafood supply system, and throughout the larger community.

Despite these challenges, climate change could create new opportunities for fishers, for example when species shift north into the range vessels operating out of a given port. However, opportunities such as access to new fisheries can be limited by existing management (e.g., restricted access), cost of entry (e.g., for vessels, gear, permits, fishing knowledge/expertise) (Source).

Some of the potential implications for Fort Bragg’s primary fisheries follow.

Dungeness Crab

• Ocean warming poses a great risk to the Dungeness crab fishery (Source). Sustained warmer ocean temperatures create ideal conditions for HABs and elevated domoic acid (DA) levels, potentially prompting delays and closures in the commercial and recreational fisheries
• Ocean acidification (OA) poses a threat to the crab fishery, as it is known to cause shell dissolution (Source), decreases in shell width, and increased mortality in crabs (Source).

Red Sea Urchin

• Low nutrient conditions coupled with increased purple urchin grazing on kelp have led to significant declines in kelp abundance, negatively impacting red sea urchin growth and the quality of gonads for the market. Red sea urchins’ movement to deeper waters where other prey is more available, in turn, makes it more time-consuming and dangerous for divers to collect them, ultimately affecting the profitability as well as the safety of the fishery.
• Ocean acidification has the potential to impact red sea urchin reproduction negatively, requiring higher concentrations of sperm to achieve fertilization success (Source).

Groundfish

• Lower oxygen levels resulting from higher ocean temperatures may impact species distributions along the West Coast (Source).
• Biomass of some species (e.g., sablefish [black cod] is expected to decline under increased ocean temperatures) (Source).
• Deeper water species may be somewhat sheltered from changing conditions with the potential to expand distribution to encompass deeper habitats (Source).

Hagfish

• The impacts of ocean warming and acidification on hagfish are unknown. However, a decrease in pH may negatively affect the invertebrates that hagfish feed on.
• Fishing effort for hagfish could increase as other climate-vulnerable fisheries decline (or other fishery changes occur), as when commercial salmon fishery closures in 2008 and 2009 contributed to increased participation in the hagfish fishery (Source).

6.2 Community Social Vulnerability Index

NOAA developed a suite of social indicators, the Community Social Vulnerability Index (CSVI), for use in fisheries social impact assessment. These indices address social well-being and sustainability and include measures of vulnerability and resilience for coastal fishing communities. It is important to note that much of the data used to determine CSVI rankings is for US Census Bureau “Census-Designated Places” rather than fisheries per se and therefore reflect the demographics of the wider community, rather than fisheries participants specifically.

Based on 2016 data, Fort Bragg ranks as high vulnerability on the CSVI in terms of both poverty and risk of personal disruption, and medium to medium-high vulnerability as a function of labor force and housing indices. Fort Bragg also ranks as a medium to medium-high vulnerability as a function of gentrification pressures such as housing disruption and retiree migration. In 2019, the poverty rate was 19.4%, compared to 10.5% nationally. The city had a 54.5% employment rate, compared to 61% nationally. The impacts of climate change are amplified when a community is already socially and economically vulnerable because their ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change on primary fisheries is severely limited.

For more information and a detailed definition of each indicator, go to NOAA Fisheries.