6. Social and Environmental Vulnerability

6.1 Climate Vulnerability

The California Current Ecosystem is vulnerable to numerous impacts associated with ocean and climate change including:

• Ocean warming is affecting environmental patterns such as wind and upwelling.
• Scientists have linked the 2014-2015 warm water ‘Blob” in the Eastern Pacific Ocean to the West Coast’s longest and most widespread HAB event in history. Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are becoming more frequent and severe, with some producing domoic acid, a potent neurotoxin that accumulates in the viscera (and in some cases the meat) of shellfish (bivalves, crustaceans) and some finfish and, when ingested, poses human health risks. When HABs die off and decay, they reduce the amount of oxygen in the water, potentially creating “dead zones” which can affect species distributions. During 2015-16, a large and persistent HAB on the West Coast led to unprecedented DA-related season delays and closures for California’s Dungeness and rock crab fisheries, respectively (Source).
• Sea level rise/flooding threatens coastal communities, including port infrastructure, and can exacerbate the impacts of king tides.
• Shifting wind patterns and intensification that result from changes to ocean temperatures and upwelling patterns pose safety risks to fishers.
• Ocean acidification and changing ocean chemistry impact shellfish and associated fisheries.
• Shifts in abundance and distribution can drive highly localized impacts on fishing communities depending on social and economic resilience and management constraints (Source).

Fishing communities’ experiences with ocean and climate change vary greatly depending on environmental, social and economic factors (Source). The impacts of climate change play out shoreside through social and economic networks at the port, in the fishery support and seafood supply system, and throughout the larger community.

Despite these challenges, climate change could create new opportunities for fishers, for example when species shift north into the range vessels operating out of a given port. However, opportunities such as access to new fisheries can be limited by existing management (e.g., restricted access), cost of entry (e.g., for vessels, gear, permits, fishing knowledge/expertise) (Source).

Some of the potential implications for Eureka’s primary fisheries follow.

Dungeness Crab

• Ocean warming poses a great risk to the Dungeness crab fishery (Source). Sustained warmer ocean temperatures create ideal conditions for HABs and elevated domoic acid (DA) levels, potentially prompting delays and closures in the commercial and recreational fisheries
• Ocean acidification (OA) poses a threat to the crab fishery, as it is known to cause shell dissolution (Source), decreases in shell width, and increased mortality in crabs (Source).

Shrimp

• Ocean warming may reduce abundance and/or result in more northerly distribution of shrimp, which are more productive under cooler ocean water regimes (Source). Shrimp are also vulnerable to OA impacts on shell formation and integrity.

Groundfish

• Lower oxygen levels resulting from higher ocean temperatures may impact species distributions along the West Coast (Source).
• Biomass of some species (e.g., sablefish [black cod] is expected to decline under increased ocean temperatures) (Source).
• Deeper water species may be somewhat sheltered from changing conditions with the potential to expand distribution to encompass deeper habitats (Source).

Salmon

• Salmon are at risk of multiple impacts from climate change. Extreme drought conditions, high flows and hotter water temperatures impact salmon habitat. Habitat restoration competes with agricultural and other forms of water use. Ocean acidification affects salmon spawning behavior negatively, resulting in lower returns. Warming surface temperatures negatively impact smelt survival. Salmon resilience is limited by the unprecedented rate of change and habitat loss (Source).

6.2 Community Social Vulnerability Index

NOAA developed a suite of social indicators, the Community Social Vulnerability Index (CSVI), for use in fisheries social impact assessment. These indices address social well-being and sustainability and include measures of vulnerability and resilience for coastal fishing communities. It is important to note that much of the data used to determine CSVI rankings is for US Census Bureau “Census-Designated Places” rather than fisheries per se and therefore reflect the demographics of the wider community, rather than fisheries participants specifically.

Based on 2016 data, Eureka ranks as a medium to medium-high socially vulnerable on the CSVI as a function of labor force, housing, poverty and personal disruption indices. Eureka also ranks as medium-high vulnerability as a function of housing disruption related to gentrification, however, it ranks low as a function of retiree migration and urban sprawl. In 2019, the poverty rate was 20%, compared to 10.5% nationally. The city had a 56% employment rate, compared to 61% nationally. The impacts of climate change are amplified when a community is already socially and economically vulnerable because their ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change on primary fisheries is severely limited.

For more information and a detailed definition of each indicator, go to NOAA Fisheries.